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Yet now a lone missile is literally exploding a great deal of the shadowplay. The head of IranвЂ™s Parliament Energy Committee, Fereydoun Abbasi Davani, even accused Washington and London of being accomplices to the sabotage of Natanz, as they arguably supplied intel to Tel Aviv.

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While Khamenei has issued a fatwa clearly stating that producing, stockpiling and using weapons of mass destruction вЂ“ nuclear included вЂ“ is haram (banned by Islam), IsraelвЂ™s leadership feels free to order stunts such as the sabotage via Mossad of the (civilian) Iranian nuclear complex at Natanz. Via a spectacular kabuki, the fact that Israel is a nuclear power happens to remain вЂњinvisibleвЂќ to most of world public opinion. In the original 2015 negotiations in Vienna вЂ“ follow them in my Persian Miniatures e-book вЂ“ Obama-Biden 2.0 did everything in their power to include missiles in the deal.Д®very grain of sand in the Negev desert knows that Israel will go no holds barred to retain its nuclear weapon primacy in the Middle East. What none of the actors in the shadowplay can admit is that the revival of the JCPOA pales compared to the real issue: the power of Iranian missiles. Hardliners are already in post-JCPOA mode.

Team RouhaniвЂ™s efforts have been branded a failure since the onset of TrumpвЂ™s вЂњmaximum pressureвЂќ campaign. The next President most certainly will be a hardliner. At least 80% of Tehran members of Parliament are now hardliners. The window of opportunity for a deal wonвЂ™t last long. The Foreign Ministry has even released a quite detailed fact sheet once again stressing the need to remove вЂњall sanctions imposed, re-imposed and re-labeled since January 20, 2017вЂќ.

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Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, virtually at the end of his term before the June presidential elections, always goes back to the same point: no more US sanctions IranвЂ™s verification then Iran will return to its вЂњnuclear obligationsвЂќ. Foreign Minister Javad Zarif is visiting Qatar and Iraq, and has already met with the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim al Thani. Meanwhile, Iranian diplomacy remains on overdrive. After all, the narrative of a successful deal is already being constructed as a foreign policy victory by the Biden-Harris administration вЂ“ or, as cynics prefer, Obama-Biden 3.0. Israeli intel has already notified the security cabinet that a deal most certainly will be reached in Vienna.

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Plus non-stop pressure by Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who are all JCPOA-adverse.Д«ut then thereвЂ™s extra shadowplay. That takes into consideration the non-negotiable red lines established by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei himself. Now compare it with the assessment of informed Iranian insiders in Washington such as nuclear policy expert Seyed Hossein Mousavian: вЂњThere are complex issues in this area that we are examiningвЂќ. When it comes to вЂњsecondвЂќ, Araghchi has to be evasive:

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When the Foreign Ministry in Tehran, for instance, says that 60% or 70% has been agreed upon, thatвЂ™s code for lifting of divisional sanctions. ThereвЂ™s absolutely no guarantee the US Congress will lift most or at least a significant part of these sanctions.Д®veryone in Washington knows it вЂ“ and the American delegation knows it. First, categorized or so-called divisional sanctions, such as oil, banking and insurance, shipping, petrochemical, building and automobile sanctions, and second, sanctions against real and legal individuals.вЂќ So, at least in thesis, the debate is still on. The sanctions must be lifted, verified and then Iran must return to its commitments.вЂќ вЂњWe are not disappointed and we will do our job. Neither flat out optimistic nor pessimistic, he remains, letвЂ™s say, cautiously upbeat, at least in public: Shadowplay goes turbo when every Viennese coffee table knows about TehranвЂ™s red lines: either itвЂ™s back to the original JCPOA as it was agreed in Vienna in 2015 and then ratified by the UN Security Council, or nothing.ДЄraghchi, mild-mannered and polite, has had to go on the record once again to stress that Tehran will leave if the talks veer towards вЂњbullyingвЂќ, time wasting or even a step-by-step ballroom dance, which is time wasting under different terminology. There is an American delegation in Vienna, but they only talk with the Europeans.

ThatвЂ™s quite something: after all, it was the Trump administration that blew up the JCPOA. Shadowplay starts with the fact the Iranians negotiate with the other members of the P+1 вЂ“ Russia, China, France, UK and Germany вЂ“ but not directly with the US. The Iranian negotiating team was back in Vienna yesterday, led by Deputy Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi.

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ThatвЂ™s the group in charge of a Sisyphean task: the attempt to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal through a series of negotiations in Vienna. Few people, apart from specialists, may have heard of the JCPOA Joint Commission.